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Lit Pro Analytics: SMX Playoffs- Las Vegas

Key Highlights

  • Why He’s the Champ: In 450 Moto 1, Jett’s median lap was just half a second off his fastest. Half his laps were essentially identical. He locks into a pace early, knowing no one else can match it late. On the lap he took the lead, he was two seconds quicker than Tomac yet still within four tenths of his best lap time. Jett simply doesn’t fade.
  • Tomac’s Tenacity: Eli Tomac gave fans one last vintage ride in his final AMA race with Star Racing. He was the only rider to dip under 1:30 in Moto 1, proving he still had elite speed against the Lawrences. Now all eyes are on his farewell duel at the Motocross of Nations.
  • Privateers are Important: Dylan Schwartz finished fifth in his final 250 moto, 11th in SMX points, and led the entire 250 class in consistency. A privateer topping factory-backed riders in the data is massive and shows exactly why privateers keep the sport alive.
  • Legacy: Jo Shimoda won 250 Moto 1, but Deegan’s stat line was outrageous. His average lap was a full second quicker, and in the final three laps he was over two seconds faster per lap. Without the DiFrancesco crash, a collision with Jo was inevitable. Even in Moto 2, while playing games, Deegan still had the best median lap by more than a second and the top Lap 99. The speed was undeniable. The antics tarnished it.

If you prefer listening to an AI enhanced audio version of this article. https://www.youtube.com/embed/e8rIr8uZVRs

450 Analysis

What happened in Vegas definitely isn’t staying in Vegas. The final SMX playoff round brought all the drama and some of the best racing we could have asked for. From a teary-eyed Jett Lawrence locking down his third consecutive SMX Playoff Championship to Haiden Deegan’s boneheaded moves, this one had it all.

Ignoring the chaos (stupidity?) that was 250 Moto 2, we still got some amazing racing Saturday night. But the story goes deeper than what happened on the track. We’ve got the numbers behind Jett Lawrence’s masterclass in Moto 1, Eli Tomac’s gracious grit in his final AMA race with Star Racing, and more. Let’s dive in.

Track Breakdown:

The track map above shows who clocked the fastest average sector times in each motos. 

450 Moto 1 was basically a snapshot of how the back half of the season has gone. Jett is inevitable. Sure, he might have looked “sluggish” in the opening laps, but his racing has evolved into something even scarier. He doesn’t need the holeshot anymore. Even when he’s not leading time on the sector map, he’s learned how to stay strong late. Bad news for everyone else.

That said, the Moto 1 map also showed just how good Tomac was. Yes, it was one of his last runs with Star. You can argue the money mattered, but for Tomac this was about legacy. He was dialed in on the outdoor sections, flowing on his YZ450, and poured everything he had into it. Tomac heading into the twilight, the Lawrences in their prime. Yet, he still fought them every lap.

Moto 2 was more tame. You could almost feel Jett’s emotions as he sat in third. Third place would have given Hunter the title, but was Jett really going to let that happen?  And Jett being Jett, he dropped the hammer late, grabbed second, and kept his record intact: the only 450 rider to win the SMX Playoffs since they began.

Shoutout to Ken Roczen and R.J. Hampshire too. Their playoffs didn’t go as planned, but both had highlights. Roczen keeps showing up on the track maps despite being at a similar point in his career as Tomac. Hampshire proved he’s got a bright future as the rookie looked sharp.

450 Moto 1:

SEGRiderAvg.
Time
Fastest
Time (All)
Sector
Consistency (All)
1J. Cooper9.769.5381.1
2E. Tomac8.287.9776.0
3H. Lawrence10.319.8972.1
4J. Lawrence14.4013.9880.7
5E. Tomac4.634.4374.0
6E. Tomac18.6518.1087.6
7E. Tomac9.359.1085.8
8H. Lawrence15.3714.8882.8

450 Moto 2:

SEGRiderAvg.
Time
Fastest
Time (All)
Sector
Consistency (All)
1K. Roczen9.759.2382.3
2E. Tomac8.338.1180.1
3H. Lawrence10.169.6576.7
4J. Lawrence14.5514.2282.7
5J. Lawrence4.894.5761.4
6H. Lawrence18.8218.4286.1
7K. Roczen9.309.0683.4
8R. Hampshire15.3915.0787.0

Lap Time Breakdown:

This track was fast. Classic hard-packed West Coast dirt kept it ripping all night. You’d think the sand would have been the toughest section based on LITPro consistency scoring, but in every moto it was the split lane that produced the most variance. The layout rewarded aggression and the refusal to back down. In the 450s, only the Lawrences and Tomac really mastered it, they were the only riders to set multiple fast laps in both motos.

Consistency across the class was high. The 450 field is stacked, former champions everywhere you look, and they brought championship-level intensity. Median consistency scores were flirting with 90 in both motos, with eight riders breaking 90 in both.

Moto 1 Fast Laps (14 Timed Laps)

  • J. Lawrence: 7
  • H. Lawrence, Tomac: 2
  • Cooper, Hampshire, Roczen: 1

Class Average Consistency: 89.9
Class Median Consistency: 89.9

Moto 2 Fast Laps (14 Timed Laps)

  • H. Lawrence: 5
  • J. Lawrence: 4
  • Tomac: 3
  • Bacia, Sexton: 1

Class Average Consistency: 72.6
Class Median Consistency: 88.1

450 Moto 1 Analysis

RIDERAverage
Time
Median
Time
Fastest
Time
Lap 99Consistency
J. Lawrence1:31.591:30.991:30.481:28.6595.9
E. Tomac1:31.871:31.801:29.731:29.3085.4
H. Lawrence1:32.011:32.021:30.721:29.5489.9
J. Cooper1:32.771:32.391:30.731:31.0086.4
K. Roczen1:32.961:32.681:32.021:30.6794.8

Rider’s sorted by median lap time.

Top Performances:

Check the gap between Jett’s fastest lap and his median, just half a second. That means for half his laps, he was within half a second of his best. “Sluggish” starts? Not really. He just locks into a pace early, and by the end, it’s faster than anyone else’s. He did it last week in St. Louis, where he was two seconds a lap quicker than the field at the end, and he did it again here. On the lap he took the lead, he was two seconds quicker than Tomac. Jett simply doesn’t fade.

Plenty of riders put in strong laps near that 1:30 mark, but only the Lawrences and Tomac can hold that intensity through a full moto. That’s the difference, and the clear homework for Cooper and Hampshire.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency:

Jett’s consistency score? A ridiculous 95.9, best in class. When he’s on this kind of form, he’s untouchable. Hampshire also posted a strong 95.2, but was still 2.5 seconds a lap off Jett’s pace. Tomac, at 85.4, looked “human” here. Most riders would kill for that number, but against Jett it wasn’t enough.

Lap 99 Analysis:

Tomac did lay down the fastest lap of the race, the only rider under 1:30, but Jett’s theoretical best (piecing together his top sector times) absolutely crushed the field.

450 Moto 2 Analysis

RIDERAverage
Time
Median
Time
Fastest
Time
Lap 99Consistency
H. Lawrence1:32.101:31.801:30.771:29.6992.1
J. Lawrence1:32.391:31.861:30.031:29.3684.8
E. Tomac1:32.731:31.951:31.021:29.5592.6
J. Cooper1:33.851:33.051:32.001:30.2093.2
K. Roczen1:33.251:33.081:31.911:30.5291.9

Rider’s sorted by median lap time.

Top Performances:

Moto 2 was thick with tension. Just 0.15 seconds separated the top three median lap times as Jett tried to figure out his strategy. Statistically, the Lawrences and Tomac were basically identical, though Jett had the fastest single lap.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency:

Consistency told the real story. Jett wasn’t laser-focused like in Moto 1. He wasn’t chasing his full potential, just shadowing Tomac, logging laps, and making sure he had what he needed to secure the championship.

Several other riders wrapped up their seasons with strong consistency, with 10 breaking the 90 mark in Moto 2.

Lap 99 Analysis:

The top three weren’t just tight in median lap times, less than 0.3 seconds separated their theoretical bests. While fans might have thought it was a “boring” race after the chaos in the 250s, what we got was precision. Masters at work.

250 Analysis

Here it is, the moment we were all waiting for. Deegan vs. Shimoda. What would Deegan do with everything on the line? Well, he rode like a clown. That is all I will say about that part. What makes it frustrating is just how good Deegan was riding in Moto 2 before he decided to start up the antics. The kid was on rails the entire night. What could have been his lasting 250 legacy, arguably one of the best, is now stained.

Deegan had a choice. Take second in the championship, use Levi Kitchen as the easy scapegoat, and wax the field one last time. Or do something desperate to Shimoda, even while already on probation, and ultimately only hurt himself. We all know which option he chose.

Track Breakdown:

The track map above shows who clocked the fastest average sector times in each motos. 

Normally if a rider does not finish, I leave them off the track maps. But Deegan ran most of Moto 2, and the numbers are astounding. He was blistering until he dropped back to mess with Jo.

In both motos, Deegan was the fastest man on the track. His poor start in Moto 1 actually gave us some of the best racing we have seen from him. The track sectors back it up. Deegan was ripping through the outdoor sections, and Jo’s advantage was minimal. Lucky for Jo, Deegan did not catch him, because we all know he would have tried to clean him out in Moto 1.

In Moto 2, even with the drama, Deegan was still fast. Jo rode his best race too. Could he have gone faster? Probably. But he sat comfortably in fourth, which at that point was not enough for the title. We all know how the rest went.

250 Moto 1:

SEGRiderAvg.
Time
Fastest
Time (All)
Sector
Consistency (All)
1S. Hammaker9.799.3376.4
2J. Shimoda8.518.0571.7
3J. Shimoda10.7410.3968.3
4H. Deegan14.4513.8271.2
5H. Deegan4.664.2964.2
6H. Deegan18.7618.3287.2
7H. Deegan9.489.1880.8
8J. Shimoda15.1514.8481.7

250 Moto 2:

SEGRiderAvg.
Time
Fastest
Time (All)
Sector
Consistency (All)
1H. Deegan9.949.6181.4
2T. Vialle8.638.1472.5
3H. Deegan10.6010.2469.2
4H. Deegan15.1114.6677.1
5J. Shimoda4.834.6063.0
6H. Deegan19.0918.5184.4
7H. Deegan9.319.0878.8
8H. Lawrence15.2314.5979.9

Lap Time Breakdown:

The 250s were just as quick. On these speedway tracks you normally see a bigger gap between the two engine sizes, but the top 250 riders were squeezing every ounce out of their machines.

That comes at the cost of consistency. The class is younger, the bikes are being pushed to the limit, and the mistakes pile up. Consistency suffers.

Want to know how Deegan slashed Shimoda’s lead in Moto 1 despite the DiFrancesco incident? It was all about his consistency.

Moto 1 Fast Laps (14 Timed Laps)

  • Deegan: 8
  • Shimoda: 4
  • Hammaker, DiFrancesco: 1

Class Average Consistency: 78.8
Class Median Consistency: 87.8

Moto 1 Fast Laps (14 Timed Laps)

  • Shimoda: 6
  • Vialle: 5
  • Hammaker: 2
  • Deegan: 1

Class Average Consistency: 74.4
Class Median Consistency: 85.4

250 Moto 1 Analysis

RIDERAverage
Time
Median
Time
Fastest
Time
Lap 99Consistency
H. Deegan1:32.171:31.681:30.491:28.3990.9
J. Shimoda1:32.141:32.201:30.671:29.4789.6
S. Hammaker1:33.161:33.171:31.291:30.2584.5
T. Vialle1:33.581:33.581:31.301:29.8579.9
M. Anstie1:39.271:34.11:33.151:31.9592.3

Rider’s sorted by median lap time.

Top Performances:

Moto 1 was everything you could want. Shimoda got the win, but Deegan had the stat line. If they had started closer, or if Deegan had not tangled with DiFrancesco, there is no question the two would have collided. By median lap time, Deegan was 0.6 seconds per lap faster. In the final three laps, he was easily running more than two seconds a lap quicker than Shimoda.

Hammaker deserves credit too. His season has been both the best and most heartbreaking of his career, and Vegas summed it up perfectly. He will be a favorite heading into 2026.

Max Anstie also deserves mention. Something strange happened on Lap 2, a full minute slower than his median, but he did not give up. He still finished with the fifth-fastest median time.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency:

Anstie also had one of the top consistency scores in the class. But the surprise of Moto 1 was Levi Kitchen. After a crash in the sand, Levi just clicked off solid laps and tried to rebound in Moto 2.

Lap 99 Analysis:

Deegan’s Lap 99 tells another story. His theoretical best was a full second quicker than Shimoda’s. His Moto 2 antics leave a bad taste, but you cannot deny how fast he really was.

250 Moto 2 Analysis

RIDERAverage
Time
Median
Time
Fastest
Time
Lap 99Consistency
H. Deegan1:33.281:32.521:31.751:29.990*
J. Shimoda1:34.271:33.531:30.761:29.9380.1
S. Hammaker1:34.321:34.001:32.711:31.3486.7
T. Vialle1:34.381:34.181:33.221:31.9592.2
D. Schwartz1:35.551:35.121:34.241:32.8893.0

Rider’s sorted by median lap time.

Top Performances:

This is the mind-blowing part. Even while slowing up and playing cat-and-mouse games with Shimoda, Deegan still had the best median lap time by more than a second. That is how fast he was riding to get to the lead.

Once Deegan was out, the pressure was gone. The pace of the race dropped instantly. Everyone just settled. It was over.

Shimoda, though, still put down the best single lap by a full second, and he walked away the winner.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency:

Props to Dylan Schwartz. He continues to prove he is one of the top privateers. He finished fifth in his final moto, 11th in SMX points, and had the best consistency score of any rider. Someone needs to give him a factory ride.

Lap 99 Analysis:

Deegan and Shimoda are clearly the two fastest riders in the 250 class. Their theoretical bests were 1.5 seconds clear of everyone else. Shimoda’s outright fastest lap also cleared every other rider’s Lap 99.

Chris Pomeroy

1989 Rookie-of-the-year and former nationally ranked pro racer who turned into a dirt oriented scribe

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