Key Highlights
- Deegan’s Grit: Haiden Deegan erased a 12-second gap to catch Hammaker and win the 250 moto. He wasn’t the outright fastest, only 4th-best lap, but his median pace was half a second per lap quicker than the field and two seconds over Hammaker.
- Jett in Control: Jett Lawrence took the 450 moto win with a class-best 94.4 LITPro consistency score, the highest of the day. He also held the fastest median lap time, showing he was only pushing as much as needed.
- A Costly Mistake: Jo Shimoda set the fastest lap of the day across both classes (1:56.38), but a crash ruined his shot at the win. His speed showed he’s the only rider who can truly match Deegan’s intensity. Still, Shimoda sliced through a difficult track to pass on, and with the help of penalties, gave him a podium.
- The Top Four: Jett, Tomac, Sexton, and Hunter all ran their fastest laps within three-tenths of a second and their median lap times within a single second. The rest of the 450 field was nowhere close. A great start for the three round playoffs for our top contenders.
450 Analysis
The first round of the SMX Playoffs was nothing short of controversial. You’ll notice this Moto Metrics is shorter than normal since weather cut the event short, allowing just one moto for each class. Still, that gives us plenty to break down.
In the 450s, there are really only four contenders: Jett and Hunter Lawrence, Eli Tomac, and Chase Sexton. We’ll dive deeper in a moment, but those four are clearly ahead of the rest of the pack on lap times. What’s respectable is that Tomac and Sexton continue to test and push themselves, even knowing they’re switching teams in a month. But one thing was clear in Concord: it’s going to be tough to beat two-time SMX Playoff Champion, Jett Lawrence. Honestly, it was hard to tell how hard Jett was actually riding. To most, it looked like he was just going fast enough to win.
Track Breakdown:
The track map above shows who clocked the fastest average sector times in each motos.
You’ll notice Hunter Lawrence missing from the map. He had an uncharacteristically bad start in Moto 1 at Budds Creek, and followed it up again here in Concord. He was only 6th on the first lap, and that cost him precious time early to Jett, Tomac, and Sexton.
On paper, this came down to Jett and Tomac and in many ways it did. But just as odd as it was to see Hunter with a bad start, we also saw Tomac make an unforced error in S1. One theme that continues to stand out in this playoff format: it pushes riders right to their limits.
450 Moto 1:
| SEG | Rider | Avg. Time | Fastest Time (All) | Sector Consistency (All) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | J. Lawrence | 14.55 | 14.14 | 77.8 |
| 2 | E. Tomac | 6.85 | 6.48 | 63.8 |
| 3 | E. Tomac | 12.18 | 11.88 | 75.2 |
| 4 | J. Lawrence | 9.14 | 8.97 | 72.6 |
| 5 | J. Lawrence | 22.91 | 21.92 | 70.7 |
| 6 | C. Sexton | 18.47 | 17.31 | 63.5 |
| 7 | E. Tomac | 22.53 | 21.87 | 81.4 |
| 8 | J. Lawrence | 12.51 | 12.26 | 79.3 |
Lap Time Breakdown:
By the time the 450s hit the track, it was hammered. One can only imagine how bad it would’ve been if the lightning had cleared and they raced in the slop. Even in the two good motos we did get, the track was falling apart quickly. The soft dirt meant gnarly ruts outdoors and sketchy rhythm lanes in the supercross sections.
The histogram makes this clear (the 250s were even crazier). Usually we see a bell curve with the fastest up front, most in the middle, mistake/crash laps at the rear. Not here. It was chaos, just like the track. If you weren’t Jett, Tomac, Sexton, or Hunter, fast laps were rare, and consistent laps were even rarer.
Moto 1 Fast Laps (11 Timed Laps)
- J. Lawrence, H. Lawrence: 4
- Sexton: 3
Class Average Consistency: 79.5
Class Median Consistency: 83.0
450 Moto 1 Analysis
| RIDER | Average Time | Median Time | Fastest Time | Lap 99 | Consistency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Lawrence | 2:00.25 | 1:59.71 | 1:58.87 | 1:56.72 | 94.4 |
| E. Tomac | 2:00.83 | 1:19.92 | 1:58.77 | 1:57.06 | 91.4 |
| C. Sexton | 2:00.34 | 2:00.31 | 1:58.78 | 1:56.95 | 85.0 |
| H. Lawrence | 2:00.69 | 2:00.76 | 1:58.44 | 1:57.21 | 86.7 |
| R. Hampshire | 2:22.01 | 2:01.19 | 2:00.23 | 1:58.76 | 87.7 |
Rider’s sorted by median lap time.
Top Performances:
First, check the lap-time gap between the top four and Hampshire. Not to bag on RJ, but he and the rest of the field were clearly off pace. That’s not to say nobody outside the top four had moments, but those four were on another level. Their fastest laps were within three-tenths, their medians within a second, and they absolutely gapped everyone else in just 11 timed laps.
Let’s also give Hunter Lawrence some credit. With a second moto (in dry conditions), I think we would’ve seen a much stronger Hunter. He set the fastest lap of the race on lap 5.
LITPro 10-Lap Consistency:
Want a good indicator of when Jett’s in control and not pushing all-out? Look at his consistency score. 94.4 is insanely good. Not only was he the fastest guy on track by median lap time (0.2 quicker per lap), but he was also 10 points higher than the class median in consistency. He rode in control, yet smooth and fast. Jett and Tomac were the only two to crack 90.
Lap 99 Analysis:
Hunter may have had the outright fastest lap, but Jett showed the most potential. His Lap 99 time was nearly a quarter second quicker than Sexton’s, and those two were the only ones in the 1:56s. Yet another sign Jett was just doing enough to win, classic Jett.
250 Analysis
The 250s had so many storylines it was hard to keep track. Deegan pulled off a classic come-from-behind win to remind everyone he’s one of the best 250 riders on the planet. Shimoda was blazing fast but went down, then put in an amazing comeback ride. Hammaker had a great start, only to get heartbreakingly passed by Deegan at the end. And Forkner, not only making it this far into the season, but running in a podium spot most of the race before finishing top five.
Track Breakdown:
The track map above shows who clocked the fastest average sector times in each motos.
The track map shows plenty of 250 names this week, but it would’ve looked a whole lot different if Shimoda had stayed upright. He set the fastest lap of any rider in either class. He was flying before he went down and after. He really shined in the outdoor sections, carrying momentum from Pro Motocross.
The rest of the map looked strong too, but Deegan was the story. Not only did he erase a 12-second gap to Hammaker, he added another 3. Over a full Pro Motocross-style 30-minute moto, he probably would’ve won by 15. An impressive ride from the two-time 250 SMX Playoff Champion.
250 Moto 1:
| SEG | Rider | Avg. Time | Fastest Time (All) | Sector Consistency (All) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | H. Deegan | 14.52 | 14.05 | 79.7 |
| 2 | S. Hammaker | 6.80 | 6.52 | 59.9 |
| 3 | H. Deegan | 12.57 | 11.90 | 71.8 |
| 4 | A. Forkner | 9.41 | 9.04 | 74.5 |
| 5 | L. Kitchen | 22.72 | 21.54 | 59.2 |
| 6 | J. Shimoda | 18.24 | 16.89 | 52.5 |
| 7 | J. Shimoda | 22.58 | 21.63 | 77.6 |
| 8 | S. Hammaker | 12.46 | 12.03 | 77.8 |
Lap Time Breakdown:
The two early blips were Shimoda and Hammaker. Deegan only set the 4th fastest lap of the race, but when the track got rough, he came alive. The lap-time distribution was also more normal for the 250s, with a typical bell curve. Still, the track broke down fast, and consistency was tough to come by, a stark reminder why the 450s are the top dogs.
Moto 1 Fast Laps (11 Timed Laps)
- Deegan: 4
- Shimoda: 3
- Hammaker, Kitchen: 2
Class Average Consistency: 70.1
Class Median Consistency: 76.5
250 Moto 1 Analysis
| RIDER | Average Time | Median Time | Fastest Time | Lap 99 | Consistency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Deegan | 2:00.51 | 1:59.83 | 1:58.78 | 1:56.38 | 87.3 |
| J. Shimoda | 2:01.52 | 2:00.22 | 1:56.38 | 1:55.86 | 76.7 |
| L. Kitchen | 2:00.71 | 2:01.02 | 1:58.44 | 1:56.60 | 84.7 |
| C. Davies | 2:03.07 | 2:01.83 | 1:58.84 | 1:56.54 | 71.3 |
| S. Hammaker | 2:01.29 | 2:01.90 | 1:57.22 | 1:56.53 | 67.6 |
Rider’s sorted by median lap time.
Top Performances:
Deegan’s grit stood out. Even with only the 4th fastest lap, his median times were half a second quicker per lap. And when it came to chasing down Hammaker, he was running nearly two seconds a lap faster.
Shimoda was equally impressive. I wish we could’ve seen him battle Deegan straight up. He’s one of the few who can match Deegan’s intensity, and his fastest lap was more than two seconds quicker.
Kitchen, Davies, and Hammaker also had strong rides. Kitchen is finally looking healthy again. Davies was 4th fastest by median time but an early tip-over buried him in 8th — costly. Hammaker looked like his Supercross self: fast early, in control, but faded late. I expect him to shine on the supercross-style St. Louis track next week.
LITPro 10-Lap Consistency:
Nobody broke 90 in the 250s. Max Anstie led at 89.9, just ahead of race winner Haiden Deegan at 87.3. Only seven riders even broke 80. The track broke down that quickly after the opening laps.
Lap 99 Analysis:
Deegan’s Lap 99 time matched Shimoda’s best lap, showing just how fast Shimoda was. Jo’s Lap 99 was another half second faster. Without that crash, I’m not sure Deegan would’ve caught him.
