Famous Last Words With Palms- Anaheim 1 Preview

Well, the day that we’ve been waiting for it almost here. In just three sleeps, the riders will take to the track inside Angel Stadium for the opening round of the 2024 Monster Energy Supercross Series. Like every year, 2024 brings with it a lot of anticipation as there are multiple story lines in both the 450SX class, and the 250SX West class. Can Jett Lawrence continue his dominance? Will Eli Tomac be able to return to the level he was at a year ago before his injury? Will Chase Sexton be better, and more consistent on his new KTM? These are all questions that we’ll address shortly, but first let’s talk about the Anaheim 1 track.

In year’s past the opening round track has been tamed down to allow riders to ease into the series after a long off-season. This has sometimes opened the door for certain riders to find success that normally wouldn’t, if the track was super technical. After examining the Yamaha Track Map for A1, this doesn’t appear to be the case this year. The track design looks tight and challenging with a sand section, two whoop sections, and a nasty looking ‘Dragon’s Back’ obstacle. The A1 track also features a rare right hand first turn, two long rhythm sections, and what appears to be a large finish line double. The riders are certainly going to be tested right away and it’s going to be fun to watch. If you watch Dean Wilson’s latest Vlog, you can see him practicing last week at the Star Racing Yamaha facility where they built an A1 replica track. Will this give Cooper Webb and the Star Racing riders an advantage this weekend? I guess we’ll see. The good news is that the weather looks perfect for Saturday; with no rain in the forecast, and the temperature will most likely be around 12c when the gate drops for the main events. The track will be in great shape all day long on Saturday, and that should make for some great racing at the opening round. Now, let’s answer some of those questions.

The first question that I think everyone has, can Jett Lawrence continue the dominance he had in 2023? This, like all of them, is a complex question that really only time can fully answer. My thought is that as we sit here today Jett is the odds on favourite to win the 450SX title this year. I don’t believe that he will be as dominate and go undefeated, there are just too many variables in Supercross that can effect a rider’s finish in the main event. But, unless Jett has an injury during the 450SX Series, I think his speed, talent, and superior race craft will be good enough to get the job done. So, while Jett is my pick for the 2024 450SX title, I also think we’re about to witness one of the most entertaining championship fights we’ve ever seen.

The next question is about Eli Tomac and his ability to return to the form he was at, last year before his injury. When it comes to his recovery and desire to get back to the top, I don’t think there are any doubts surrounding these two things. Tomac had the best doctors and physio people at his disposal so, if he’s lining up on Saturday, then he is 100% ready to go. The only part of Tomac’s game that gives me cause for doubt is the fact that while he was at home recovering from his Achilles injury last summer, his main competition for this 450SX title was racing, training, and most importantly, improving their race craft. Will Tomac, at his age, be able to find that extra half second of intensity that he will no doubt need if he wants to win races in 2024. Basically, what is Tomac’s current comfort zone, and will he be able to exceed it and still remain on two wheels. I know, there’s nothing like answering a question with even more questions. I think if anyone can return to championship winning form after a serious injury, it’s certainly Eli Tomac. He may need a few races to get back into the winning fray, but he knows better than anyone that the chase for the 450SX title really doesn’t begin until the Daytona SX.

Another big question is regarding Chase Sexton and how he will be on his new KTM. The Sexton talk during the off-season has been strange to me, I don’t think there has ever been this much skepticism surrounding the defending champion. Yes, Tomac got hurt in the second-to-last round of the 2023 series, and at the time he had a decent points lead over Sexton. However, at the end of the day you still have to finish a series in order to be the champion, and Chase Sexton deserved to win the title last year. At times in 2023, Sexton was by far the fastest rider, and on certain nights, Tomac had nothing for him. However, there were also times last year when Sexton had the win in the bag and simply tossed it away with a silly crash. So, my question coming into this year is not about Sexton’s bike and if the KTM will give him the same issues that his Honda did in 2023. My question is about Sexton and his ability to fully concentrate and remain ‘in the zone’ for the entire main event. I don’t think Sexton’s issues last year were as much about his bike as they were about his mental prowess. I believe that he simply gets ahead of himself mentally during the main event. In Supercross especially, as a rider you have to stay in the moment, as precision is one of the big keys to success. If you miss a line by even a couple of inches, you can find yourself on the ground. If Sexton can keep his mind relaxed and focused on the here and now, then he’s going to be tough to beat, regardless of what bike he’s racing. With a new bike, a new team, and new expectations, Sexton needs to get off to a good start in 2024 if he wants to repeat as Monster Energy Supercross Champion.

The final question that needs to be answered in the 450SX class is which rider or riders (other than Jett, Tomac, or Sexton) are going to step up and challenge for not just race wins, but also for this title? By all accounts, Malcolm Stewart has been going very fast during the off-season. Mookie has also shown a lot of speed, but has lacked the consistency needed to fight for the 450SX title. Cooper Webb is back on a Yamaha and has looked solid in some of the videos posted. We know he’s mentally strong and can make some massive charges in the final laps of a main event, but is his speed good enough to remain close enough to the lead in the early part of the race? Ken Roczen is another rider who is capable of winning races and being a threat for this title. Kenny is riding as good right now as we’ve ever seen him , and he appears to be as confident as ever on his Suzuki. I don’t know if he can stay in the hunt for 17 rounds but, I do know that Kenny is going to be good, and he may win the main event this weekend in Anaheim. Finally, let’s not forget Justin Barcia who has won more opening rounds than any other rider currently in the field. Barcia loves coming out early in the series and setting the pace. I think Barcia will be good, as will Jason Anderson, and these are two riders who have won before, and need to win again.

In the 250SX West class, we have not only a great battle coming up between riders like Jo Shimoda, RJ Hampshire, Jordan Smith, and Levi Kitchen, but we also have three Canadians racing this weekend in Cole Thompson, Guillaume St-Cyr, and Julien Benek. With the riders that are scheduled to line up, it looks as though Shimoda is probably the favorite to win this title, as he was very fast toward the end of 2023. Also, with his switch to the HRC Team, I think he will only be better this year. Of the Canadian riders I mentioned, Thompson is the favorite to do the best, as this will be his third year of racing the 250SX West Series and his second full season with the Solitaire Yamaha Team. Thompson has also enjoyed success in recent months in both the WSX Championships and the Australian SX Series. I would look for Thompson to be battling once again for Top 7 finishes every night, while Benek and St-Cyr could also be main event riders with some good starts in their heat races.

It all gets underway this weekend in Anaheim, and like everyone else, I have cleared my schedule on Saturday and will be tuning in. As I mentioned above, the track looks good, the weather will be perfect, and the riders are chopping at the bit to get the 2024 Monster Energy